arXiv2026
Reaction-diffusion systems driven far from thermodynamic equilibrium through the injection of energy can support multiple spatial patterns that persist as long-lived dynamical phases. The stability of these metastable phases is not determined by thermodynamics, but by the transition paths connecting them. At finite particle numbers, intrinsic stochasticity induces rare transitions between competing patterns, rendering continuum mean-field descriptions insufficient, while exact stochastic simulations become computationally prohibitive in spatially extended systems. Here, we make absolute instanton rate calculations, including fluctuation and symmetry prefactors, tractable for transitions between metastable patterns in large nonequilibrium reaction-diffusion systems. Applied to a canonical Schlögl model and an experimentally motivated ATP-driven membrane kinase-phosphatase network, the resulting rates agree closely with reaction-diffusion master-equation benchmarks. We show that an effective path entropy can qualitatively alter stability at finite particle numbers by selectively enhancing one switching direction. These results establish path entropy as an organizing principle for finite-particle nonequilibrium pattern stability.