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arXiv · 0911.3249

Emergence of scale invariance and efficiency in a racetrack betting market

Shintaro Mori·Masato Hisakado
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Abstract

We study the time change of the relation between the rank of a racehorse in the Japan Racing Association and the result of victory or defeat. Horses are ranked according to the win bet fractions. As the vote progresses, the racehorses are mixed on the win bet fraction axis. We see the emergence of a scale invariant relation between the cumulative distribution function of the winning horse $x_{1}$ and that of the losing horse $x_{0}$. $x_{1}\propto x_{0}^{\alpha}$ holds in the small win bet fraction region. We also see the efficiency of the market as the vote proceeds. However, the convergence to the efficient state is not monotonic. The time change of the distribution of a vote is complicated. Votes resume concentration on popular horses, after the distribution spreads to a certain extent. In order to explain scale invariance, we introduce a simple voting model. In a `double' scaling limit, we show that the exact scale invariance relation $x_{1}=x_{0}^{\alpha}$ holds over the entire range $0\le x_{0},x_{1}\le 1$.

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Shintaro Mori, Masato Hisakado. 2009-11-17. Emergence of scale invariance and efficiency in a racetrack betting market. https://arxiv.org/abs/0911.3249

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