Competing Technologies: Disturbance, Selection, and the Possibilities of Lock-in

Loet Leydesdorff; Peter Van den Besselaar

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arXiv · 1001.4430

Competing Technologies: Disturbance, Selection, and the Possibilities of Lock-in

Loet Leydesdorff·Peter Van den Besselaar

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Abstract

Arthur's (1988) model for competing technologies is discussed from the perspective of evolution theory. Using Arthur's own model for the simulation, we show that 'lock-ins' can be suppressed by adding reflexivity or uncertainty on the side of consumers. Competing technologies then tend to remain in competition. From an evolutionary perspective, lock-ins and prevailing equilibrium can be considered as different trajectories of the techno-economic systems under study. Our simulation results suggest that technological developments which affect the natural preferences of consumers do not induce changes in trajectory, while changes in network parameters of a technology sometimes induce ordered substitution processes. These substitution processes have been shown empirically (e.g., Fisher & Prey, 1971), but hitherto they have been insufficiently understood from the perspective of evolutionary modelling. Implications for technology policies are discussed.

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Loet Leydesdorff, Peter Van den Besselaar. 2010-01-25. Competing Technologies: Disturbance, Selection, and the Possibilities of Lock-in. https://arxiv.org/abs/1001.4430

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