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arXiv · 1002.3291

A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function

Robert Ehrlich
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Abstract

Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.

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Robert Ehrlich. 2010-02-17. A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function. https://doi.org/10.1155/2010%2F763502.

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