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arXiv · 1003.2934

Significance Tests in Climate Science

Maarten H. P. Ambaum
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Abstract

A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. It is concluded that a significance test very rarely provides useful quantitative information. The significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident we can be of the 'reality' of a given result.

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Maarten H. P. Ambaum. 2010-03-15. Significance Tests in Climate Science. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3746.1

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