SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 1009.1791

Identifying the Host Galaxy of Gravitational Wave Signals

Abstract

One of the goals of the current LIGO-GEO-Virgo science run is to identify transient gravitational wave (GW) signals in near real time to allow follow-up electromagnetic (EM) observations. An EM counterpart could increase the confidence of the GW detection and provide insight into the nature of the source. Current GW-EM campaigns target potential host galaxies based on overlap with the GW sky error box. We propose a new statistic to identify the most likely host galaxy, ranking galaxies based on their position, distance, and luminosity. We test our statistic with Monte Carlo simulations of GWs produced by coalescing binaries of neutron stars (NS) and black holes (BH), one of the most promising sources for ground-based GW detectors. Considering signals accessible to current detectors, we find that when imaging a single galaxy, our statistic correctly identifies the true host ~20% to ~50% of the time, depending on the masses of the binary components. With five narrow-field images the probability of imaging the true host increases to ~50% to ~80%. When collectively imaging groups of galaxies using large field-of-view telescopes, the probability improves to ~30% to ~60% for a single image and to ~70% to ~90% for five images. For the advanced generation of detectors (c. 2015+), and considering binaries within 100 Mpc (the reach of the galaxy catalogue used), the probability is ~40% for one narrow-field image, ~75% for five narrow-field images, ~65% for one wide-field image, and ~95% for five wide-field images, irrespective of binary type.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Laura K Nuttall, Patrick J Sutton. 2011-11-29. Identifying the Host Galaxy of Gravitational Wave Signals. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.82.102002

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc