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arXiv · 1011.2077

A flexible regression model for count data

Kimberly F. Sellers·Galit Shmueli
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Abstract

Poisson regression is a popular tool for modeling count data and is applied in a vast array of applications from the social to the physical sciences and beyond. Real data, however, are often over- or under-dispersed and, thus, not conducive to Poisson regression. We propose a regression model based on the Conway--Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution to address this problem. The COM-Poisson regression generalizes the well-known Poisson and logistic regression models, and is suitable for fitting count data with a wide range of dispersion levels. With a GLM approach that takes advantage of exponential family properties, we discuss model estimation, inference, diagnostics, and interpretation, and present a test for determining the need for a COM-Poisson regression over a standard Poisson regression. We compare the COM-Poisson to several alternatives and illustrate its advantages and usefulness using three data sets with varying dispersion.

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Kimberly F. Sellers, Galit Shmueli. 2010-11-09. A flexible regression model for count data. https://doi.org/10.1214/09-aoas306

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