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arXiv · 1011.2649

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to record linkage and population size problems

Andrea Tancredi·Brunero Liseo
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Abstract

We propose and illustrate a hierarchical Bayesian approach for matching statistical records observed on different occasions. We show how this model can be profitably adopted both in record linkage problems and in capture--recapture setups, where the size of a finite population is the real object of interest. There are at least two important differences between the proposed model-based approach and the current practice in record linkage. First, the statistical model is built up on the actually observed categorical variables and no reduction (to 0--1 comparisons) of the available information takes place. Second, the hierarchical structure of the model allows a two-way propagation of the uncertainty between the parameter estimation step and the matching procedure so that no plug-in estimates are used and the correct uncertainty is accounted for both in estimating the population size and in performing the record linkage. We illustrate and motivate our proposal through a real data example and simulations.

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Andrea Tancredi, Brunero Liseo. 2010-11-11. A hierarchical Bayesian approach to record linkage and population size problems. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-aoas447

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