Zonas costeras bajas en el Golfo de M\'exico ante el incremento del nivel del mar

Adrian Carbajal-Dominguez

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arXiv · 1102.4323

Zonas costeras bajas en el Golfo de M\'exico ante el incremento del nivel del mar

Adrian Carbajal-Dominguez

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Abstract

This paper presents an estimate of the land area affected in the event of sea level rise of 0.6 m, 1 m and 2 m for Mexican sates with coasts along Gulf of Mexico. Likewise, the number of residents in vulnerable areas that would occur in the scenario of sea level rise of 1 m is estimated. To do so, terrain elevation data of NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission is used, along with a proprietary algorithm that allows the reconstruction of the affected area. In order to estimate the land area digital image processing is used. These results are geo-referenced for comparison with human settlements in the regions of interest. Results show that the total affected area corresponds to 1.26% of Mexico national territorial extension and 3.18% of the Mexico total population. 174 settlements with 1000 inhabitants or more are expected to be affected. The Mexican state with the largest area affected is Tabasco with more than 21% of its territory, while the most vulnerable population will be Veracruz, with more than 1 million people at risk if the scenario 1m increase would appear today. Meanwhile, 81.1% Quintana Roo population will be at zones with high flood risk. Vulnerable settlements are listed and the maps corresponding to different Mexican states are shown.

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Adrian Carbajal-Dominguez. 2011-02-14. Zonas costeras bajas en el Golfo de M\'exico ante el incremento del nivel del mar. https://arxiv.org/abs/1102.4323

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