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arXiv · 1103.0169

Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system

Peter Ashwin·Sebastian Wieczorek·Renato Vitolo·Peter Cox
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Abstract

Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to "tip" or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-dependent tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example of all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasi-static system.

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Peter Ashwin, Sebastian Wieczorek, Renato Vitolo, Peter Cox. 2013-02-13. Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306

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