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arXiv · 1110.5973

The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values

Z. L. Du
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Abstract

A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is slightly stronger than that between Rm and aamin (r = 0.90). From this method, cycle 24 is predicted to have a peak size of Rm (24) = 81.7(1\pm13.2%). If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation coefficient between Rm and aamin (r = 0.94) will be slightly higher, and the peak of cycle 24 is predicted much lower, Rm(24) = 52.5\pm13.1. Therefore, the prediction of Rm based on the relationship between Rm and aamin depends greatly on the accurate measurement of aa.

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Z. L. Du. 2011-10-27. The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10509-011-0906-4

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