SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 1204.2353

Least Absolute Gradient Selector: Statistical Regression via Pseudo-Hard Thresholding

Abstract

Variable selection in linear models plays a pivotal role in modern statistics. Hard-thresholding methods such as $l_0$ regularization are theoretically ideal but computationally infeasible. In this paper, we propose a new approach, called the LAGS, short for "least absulute gradient selector", to this challenging yet interesting problem by mimicking the discrete selection process of $l_0$ regularization. To estimate $\beta$ under the influence of noise, we consider, nevertheless, the following convex program [\hat{\beta} = \textrm{arg min}\frac{1}{n}\|X^{T}(y - X\beta)\|_1 + \lambda_n\sum_{i = 1}^pw_i(y;X;n)|\beta_i|] $\lambda_n > 0$ controls the sparsity and $w_i > 0$ dependent on $y, X$ and $n$ is the weights on different $\beta_i$; $n$ is the sample size. Surprisingly, we shall show in the paper, both geometrically and analytically, that LAGS enjoys two attractive properties: (1) LAGS demonstrates discrete selection behavior and hard thresholding property as $l_0$ regularization by strategically chosen $w_i$, we call this property "pseudo-hard thresholding"; (2) Asymptotically, LAGS is consistent and capable of discovering the true model; nonasymptotically, LAGS is capable of identifying the sparsity in the model and the prediction error of the coefficients is bounded at the noise level up to a logarithmic factor---$\log p$, where $p$ is the number of predictors. Computationally, LAGS can be solved efficiently by convex program routines for its convexity or by simplex algorithm after recasting it into a linear program. The numeric simulation shows that LAGS is superior compared to soft-thresholding methods in terms of mean squared error and parsimony of the model.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Kun Yang. 2012-04-11. Least Absolute Gradient Selector: Statistical Regression via Pseudo-Hard Thresholding. https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.2353

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

A Hilbert-Valued Functional Decomposition Framework for Explaining Time-Dependent Outputs

Feature-based explanations quantify features' influence on model predictions, but are primarily designed for scalar outputs. In many applications, however, outputs are functional or multivariate, such as time-dependent trajectories in demand forecasting. Consequently, existing approaches typically explain each output location independently, ignoring dependencies across the output components. We address this limitation by developing a unified framework for feature-based explanations of time-dependent outputs. Specifically, we generalize functional decomposition to Hilbert-valued prediction functions and extend an existing feature-based explanation framework to this setting. Our framework introduces kernel-based output representations that enable time-dependency-aware explanations at multiple levels of temporal granularity, including time-specific, time-resolved, and time-aggregated, while providing a unified view in which existing methods arise as special cases. We validate our framework on synthetic and real-world data, including intraday financial market volatility prediction and energy demand forecasting.

stat.ML

Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

stat.ML

A distribution-free certification framework for trustworthy crash-severity prediction

Crash-severity models inform screening, dispatch and site prioritization, yet are deployed without a finite-sample statement of what one prediction means. Off-the-shelf guarantees fail here, because the features that make crash severity distinctive defeat them: the KABCO outcome is ordinal, the recorded label is a field assessment agreeing with medical severity about half the time, erring in a structured way, and deployment crosses jurisdictions and years calibration never saw. We develop a certification layer that wraps any severity model unmodified, with distribution-free guarantees using this structure: contiguous ordinal sets that read as "B or worse"; per-class validity for any pre-declared partition, with an oracle efficiency characterization; transfer of coverage to unobserved true severity through a declared reporting band, with a worst-case sharpness result; a one-sided certificate under deployment shift; and severity-weighted risk control. The guarantees compose with an attributable slack budget. The same analysis bounds what certification can achieve. A certified set's informativeness is governed by a functional of the true law that no base model can evade and that cannot be lower-bounded distribution-free; given a declared misreporting channel identified from record-linkage data, a nonvacuous lower bound on that floor becomes computable. On 5.2 million Texas records across seven base models spanning four decades, the layer attaches identical validity and certifies, on the vulnerable road users, a model-independent floor on set width that no base model beats, separating it from a remainder that stays bounded but distribution-free unidentifiable. The framework is released as an open-source package with theorem-level tests.

stat.ML