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arXiv · 1205.4750

First Order Approximations of the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula for Predicting MLB Teams' Winning Percentages

Kevin D. Dayaratna·Steven J. Miller
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Abstract

We mathematically prove that an existing linear predictor of baseball teams' winning percentages (Jones and Tappin 2005) is simply just a first-order approximation to Bill James' Pythagorean Won-Loss formula and can thus be written in terms of the formula's well-known exponent. We estimate the linear model on twenty seasons of Major League Baseball data and are able to verify that the resulting coefficient estimate, with 95% confidence, is virtually identical to the empirically accepted value of 1.82. Our work thus helps explain why this simple and elegant model is such a strong linear predictor.

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Kevin D. Dayaratna, Steven J. Miller. 2012-05-21. First Order Approximations of the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula for Predicting MLB Teams' Winning Percentages. https://arxiv.org/abs/1205.4750

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