Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes

Christoph Baumgarten

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arXiv · 1207.3610

Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes

Christoph Baumgarten

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Abstract

Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. X_n = a_1 X_{n-1} + ...+ a_p X_{n_p} + Y_n where the random variables Y_1, Y_2, ... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a constant barrier up to time N (survival or persistence probability). Depending on the coefficients a_1,...,a_p and the distribution of Y_1, we state conditions under which the survival probability decays polynomially, faster than polynomially or converges to a positive constant. Special emphasis is put on AR(2) processes.

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Christoph Baumgarten. 2012-07-16. Survival probabilities of autoregressive processes. https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.3610

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