A Temporal Bayesian Network for Diagnosis and Prediction

Gustavo Arroyo-Figueroa; Luis Enrique Sucar

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arXiv · 1301.6675

A Temporal Bayesian Network for Diagnosis and Prediction

Gustavo Arroyo-Figueroa·Luis Enrique Sucar

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Abstract

Diagnosis and prediction in some domains, like medical and industrial diagnosis, require a representation that combines uncertainty management and temporal reasoning. Based on the fact that in many cases there are few state changes in the temporal range of interest, we propose a novel representation called Temporal Nodes Bayesian Networks (TNBN). In a TNBN each node represents an event or state change of a variable, and an arc corresponds to a causal-temporal relationship. The temporal intervals can differ in number and size for each temporal node, so this allows multiple granularity. Our approach is contrasted with a dynamic Bayesian network for a simple medical example. An empirical evaluation is presented for a more complex problem, a subsystem of a fossil power plant, in which this approach is used for fault diagnosis and prediction with good results.

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Gustavo Arroyo-Figueroa, Luis Enrique Sucar. 2013-01-23. A Temporal Bayesian Network for Diagnosis and Prediction. https://arxiv.org/abs/1301.6675

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