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arXiv · 1302.4929

Counterfactuals and Policy Analysis in Structural Models

Alexander Balke·Judea Pearl
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Abstract

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models - a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.

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Alexander Balke, Judea Pearl. 2013-02-20. Counterfactuals and Policy Analysis in Structural Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/1302.4929

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