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arXiv · 1304.2724

A Perspective on Confidence and Its Use in Focusing Attention During Knowledge Acquisition

David Heckerman·Holly B. Jimison
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Abstract

We present a representation of partial confidence in belief and preference that is consistent with the tenets of decision-theory. The fundamental insight underlying the representation is that if a person is not completely confident in a probability or utility assessment, additional modeling of the assessment may improve decisions to which it is relevant. We show how a traditional decision-analytic approach can be used to balance the benefits of additional modeling with associated costs. The approach can be used during knowledge acquisition to focus the attention of a knowledge engineer or expert on parts of a decision model that deserve additional refinement.

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David Heckerman, Holly B. Jimison. 2013-03-27. A Perspective on Confidence and Its Use in Focusing Attention During Knowledge Acquisition. https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.2724

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