Markov tail chains

Abstract

The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend this fact to Markov chains with multivariate regularly varying marginal distribution in R^d. We analyze both the forward and the backward tail process and show that they mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint relation. In a broader setting, it will be seen that even for non-Markovian underlying processes a Markovian forward tail chain always implies that the backward tail chain is Markovian as well. We analyze the resulting class of limiting processes in detail. Applications of the theory yield the asymptotic distribution of both the past and the future of univariate and multivariate stochastic difference equations conditioned on an extreme event.