Efficient Density Estimation via Piecewise Polynomial Approximation

Abstract

We give a highly efficient "semi-agnostic" algorithm for learning univariate probability distributions that are well approximated by piecewise polynomial density functions. Let $p$ be an arbitrary distribution over an interval $I$ which is $\tau$-close (in total variation distance) to an unknown probability distribution $q$ that is defined by an unknown partition of $I$ into $t$ intervals and $t$ unknown degree-$d$ polynomials specifying $q$ over each of the intervals. We give an algorithm that draws $\tilde{O}(t\new{(d+1)}/\eps^2)$ samples from $p$, runs in time $\poly(t,d,1/\eps)$, and with high probability outputs a piecewise polynomial hypothesis distribution $h$ that is $(O(\tau)+\eps)$-close (in total variation distance) to $p$. This sample complexity is essentially optimal; we show that even for $\tau=0$, any algorithm that learns an unknown $t$-piecewise degree-$d$ probability distribution over $I$ to accuracy $\eps$ must use $\Omega({\frac {t(d+1)} {\poly(1 + \log(d+1))}} \cdot {\frac 1 {\eps^2}})$ samples from the distribution, regardless of its running time. Our algorithm combines tools from approximation theory, uniform convergence, linear programming, and dynamic programming. We apply this general algorithm to obtain a wide range of results for many natural problems in density estimation over both continuous and discrete domains. These include state-of-the-art results for learning mixtures of log-concave distributions; mixtures of $t$-modal distributions; mixtures of Monotone Hazard Rate distributions; mixtures of Poisson Binomial Distributions; mixtures of Gaussians; and mixtures of $k$-monotone densities. Our general technique yields computationally efficient algorithms for all these problems, in many cases with provably optimal sample complexities (up to logarithmic factors) in all parameters.