Composite analysis with Monte Carlo methods: an example with cosmic rays and clouds

Abstract

The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hypothesized link between solar activity and the Earth's atmosphere, often through an investigation of Forbush decrease (Fd) events (sudden high-magnitude decreases in the flux cosmic rays impinging on the upper-atmosphere lasting up to several days). This technique is useful for isolating low-amplitude signals within data where background variability would otherwise obscure detection. The application of composite analyses to investigate the possible impacts of Fd events involves a statistical examination of time-dependent atmospheric responses to Fds often from aerosol and/or cloud datasets. Despite the publication of numerous results within this field, clear conclusions have yet to be drawn and much ambiguity and disagreement still remain. In this paper, we argue that the conflicting findings of composite studies within this field relate to methodological differences in the manner in which the composites have been constructed and analyzed. Working from an example, we show how a composite may be objectively constructed to maximize signal detection, robustly identify statistical significance, and quantify the lower-limit uncertainty related to hypothesis testing. Additionally, we also demonstrate how a seemingly significant false positive may be obtained from non-significant data by minor alterations to methodological approaches.