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arXiv · 1311.7348

Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions

Rui Carvalho·Lubos Buzna·Flavio Bono·Marcelo Masera·David K. Arrowsmith·Dirk Helbing
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Abstract

Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabililties to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.

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Rui Carvalho, Lubos Buzna, Flavio Bono, Marcelo Masera, David K. Arrowsmith, Dirk Helbing. 2013-11-28. Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090265

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