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arXiv · 1401.7450

Network Risk and Forecasting Power in Phase-Flipping Dynamical Networks

B. Podobnik·A. Majdandzic·C. Curme·Z. Qiao·W. -X. Zhou·H. E. Stanley·B. Li
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Abstract

In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes and links fail. We derive higher moments of the fractions of active nodes and active links, $f_n(t)$ and $f_{\ell}(t)$, and define two estimators to quantify the level of risk in a network. We find hysteresis in the correlations of $f_n(t)$ due to failures at the node level, and derive conditional probabilities for phase-flipping in networks. We apply our model to economic and traffic networks.

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BibTeXRIS

B. Podobnik, A. Majdandzic, C. Curme, Z. Qiao, W. -X. Zhou, H. E. Stanley, B. Li. 2014-01-29. Network Risk and Forecasting Power in Phase-Flipping Dynamical Networks. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.89.042807

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