Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum

Jaehyung Choi

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arXiv · 1403.8125

Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum

Jaehyung Choi

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Abstract

We empirically test predictability on asset price by using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and its consecutive recovery. In various equity markets, monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios constructed from these alternative selection criteria are superior not only in forecasting directions of asset prices but also in capturing cross-sectional return differentials. In monthly periods, the alternative portfolios ranked by maximum drawdown measures exhibit outperformance over other alternative momentum portfolios including traditional cumulative return-based momentum portfolios. In weekly time scales, recovery-related stock selection rules are the best ranking criteria for detecting mean-reversion. For the alternative portfolios and their ranking baskets, improved risk profiles in various reward-risk measures also imply more consistent prediction on the direction of assets in future. In the Carhart four-factor analysis, higher factor-neutral intercepts for the alternative strategies are another evidence for the robust prediction by the alternative stock selection rules.

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Jaehyung Choi. 2014-03-31. Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum. https://arxiv.org/abs/1403.8125

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