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arXiv · 1404.6699

An Argumentation-Based Framework to Address the Attribution Problem in Cyber-Warfare

Paulo Shakarian·Gerardo I. Simari·Geoffrey Moores·Simon Parsons·Marcelo A. Falappa
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Abstract

Attributing a cyber-operation through the use of multiple pieces of technical evidence (i.e., malware reverse-engineering and source tracking) and conventional intelligence sources (i.e., human or signals intelligence) is a difficult problem not only due to the effort required to obtain evidence, but the ease with which an adversary can plant false evidence. In this paper, we introduce a formal reasoning system called the InCA (Intelligent Cyber Attribution) framework that is designed to aid an analyst in the attribution of a cyber-operation even when the available information is conflicting and/or uncertain. Our approach combines argumentation-based reasoning, logic programming, and probabilistic models to not only attribute an operation but also explain to the analyst why the system reaches its conclusions.

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Paulo Shakarian, Gerardo I. Simari, Geoffrey Moores, Simon Parsons, Marcelo A. Falappa. 2014-04-27. An Argumentation-Based Framework to Address the Attribution Problem in Cyber-Warfare. https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.6699

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