SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 1409.0522

The Loudest Gravitational Wave Events

Abstract

As first emphasized by Bernard Schutz, there exists a universal distribution of signal-to-noise ratios for gravitational wave detection. Because gravitational waves (GWs) are almost impossible to obscure via dust absorption or other astrophysical processes, the strength of the detected signal is dictated solely by the emission strength and the distance to the source. Assuming that the space density of an arbitrary population of GW sources does not evolve, we show explicitly that the distribution of detected signal-to-noise (SNR) values depends solely on the detection threshold; it is independent of the detector network (interferometer or pulsar timing array), the individual detector noise curves (initial or Advanced LIGO), the nature of the GW sources (compact binary coalescence, supernova, or some other discrete source), and the distributions of source variables (only non-spinning neutron stars of mass exactly $1.4\,M_\odot$ or a complicated distribution of masses and spins). We derive the SNR distribution for each individual detector within a network as a function of the relative detector orientations and sensitivities. While most detections will have SNR near the detection threshold, there will be a tail of events to higher SNR. We derive the SNR distribution of the loudest (highest SNR) events in any given sample of detections. We find that the median SNR of the loudest out of the first four events should have an $\mbox{SNR}=22$ (for a threshold of 12, appropriate for the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network), increasing to a median value for the loudest SNR of 47 for 40 detections. We expect these loudest events to provide particularly powerful constraints on their source parameters, and they will play an important role in extracting astrophysics from gravitational wave sources. These distributions also offer an important internal calibration of the response of the GW detector networks.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Hsin-Yu Chen, Daniel E. Holz. 2014-09-01. The Loudest Gravitational Wave Events. https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.0522

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc