SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 1411.0598

A New Method of Accelerated Bayesian Inference for Comparable Mass Binaries in both Ground and Space-Based Gravitational Wave Astronomy

Abstract

With the advance in computational resources, Bayesian inference is increasingly becoming the standard tool of practise in GW astronomy. However, algorithms such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) require a large number of iterations to guarantee convergence to the target density. Each chain demands a large number of evaluations of the likelihood function, and in the case of a Hessian MCMC, calculations of the Fisher information matrix for use as a proposal distribution. As each iteration requires the generation of at least one gravitational waveform, we very quickly reach a point of exclusion for current Bayesian algorithms, especially for low mass systems where the length of the waveforms is large and the waveform generation time is on the order of seconds. This suddenly demands a timescale of many weeks for a single MCMC. As each likelihood and Fisher information matrix calculation requires the evaluation of noise-weighted scalar products, we demonstrate that by using the linearity of integration, and the fact that more than 90% of the generation time is spent at frequencies less that one third of the maximum, we can construct composite integrals that speed up the MCMCs for comparable mass binaries by a factor of between 3.5 and 5.5, depending on the waveform length. This method is both source and detector type independent, and can be applied to any waveform that displays significant frequency evolution, such as stellar mass binaries with Advanced LIGO/Virgo, as well as supermassive black holes with eLISA

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Edward K. Porter. 2014-11-03. A New Method of Accelerated Bayesian Inference for Comparable Mass Binaries in both Ground and Space-Based Gravitational Wave Astronomy. https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.0598

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc