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arXiv · 1412.4382

Blurring Out Cosmic Puzzles

Yann Benétreau-Dupin
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Abstract

The Doomsday argument and anthropic reasoning are two puzzling examples of probabilistic confirmation. In both cases, a lack of knowledge apparently yields surprising conclusions. Since they are formulated within a Bayesian framework, they constitute a challenge to Bayesianism. Several attempts, some successful, have been made to avoid these conclusions, but some versions of these arguments cannot be dissolved within the framework of orthodox Bayesianism. I show that adopting an imprecise framework of probabilistic reasoning allows for a more adequate representation of ignorance in Bayesian reasoning and explains away these puzzles.

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Yann Benétreau-Dupin. 2014-12-14. Blurring Out Cosmic Puzzles. https://doi.org/10.1086/683326

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