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arXiv · 1501.06377

Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms

Theodoros Economou·David B. Stephenson·Christopher A. T. Ferro
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Abstract

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10-50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive.

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Theodoros Economou, David B. Stephenson, Christopher A. T. Ferro. 2015-01-26. Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-aoas766

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