Photometry's bright future: Detecting Solar System analogues with future space telescopes

Abstract

Time-series transit photometry from the Kepler space telescope has allowed for the discovery of thousands of exoplanets. We explore the potential of yet improved future missions such as PLATO 2.0 in detecting solar system analogues. We use real-world solar data and end-to-end simulations to explore the stellar and instrumental noise properties. By injecting and retrieving planets, rings and moons of our own solar system, we show that the discovery of Venus- and Earth-analogues transiting G-dwarfs like our Sun is feasible at high S/N after collecting 6yrs of data, but Mars and Mercury will be difficult to detect due to stellar noise. In the best cases, Saturn's rings and Jupiter's moons will be detectable even in single transit observations. Through the high number (>1 bn) of observed stars by PLATO 2.0, it will become possible to detect thousands of single-transit events by cold gas giants, analogue to our Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Our own solar system aside, we also show, through signal injection and retrieval, that PLATO 2.0-class photometry will allow for the secure detection of exomoons transiting quiet M-dwarfs. This is the first study analyzing in-depth the potential of future missions, and the ultimate limits of photometry, using realistic case examples.