The current impact flux on Mars and its seasonal variation

Abstract

We calculate the present-day impact flux on Mars and its variation over the Martian year, using the current data on the orbital distribution of known Mars-crossing minor planets. We adapt the {\"O}pik-Wetherill formulation for calculating collision probabilities, paying careful attention to the non-uniform distribution of the perihelion longitude and the argument of perihelion owed to secular planetary perturbations. We find that these previously neglected non-uniformities have a significant effect on the mean annual impact flux as well as its seasonal variation. The impact flux peaks when Mars is at aphelion, but the near-alignment of Mars' eccentricity vector with the mean direction of the eccentricity vectors of Mars-crossers causes the mean annual impact flux as well as the amplitude of the seasonal variation to be significantly lower than the estimate based on a uniform random distribution of perihelion longitudes of Mars-crossers. We estimate that the flux of large impactors (of absolute magnitude $H<16$) within $\pm30^\circ$ of Mars' aphelion is about four times larger than when the planet is near perihelion. Extrapolation of our results to a model population of meter-size Mars-crossers shows that if these small impactors have a uniform distribution of their angular elements, then their aphelion-to-perihelion impact flux ratio would be as large as 25. These theoretical predictions can be tested with observational data of contemporary impacts that is becoming available from spacecraft currently in orbit about Mars.