Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1509.00549

The Top-K Tau-Path Screen for Monotone Association

Srinath Sampath·Adriano Caloiaro·Wayne Johnson·Joseph S. Verducci
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

A pair of variables that tend to rise and fall either together or in opposition are said to be monotonically associated. For certain phenomena, this tendency is causally restricted to a subpopulation, as, for example, an allergic reaction to an irritant. Previously, Yu et al. (2011) devised a method of rearranging observations to test paired data to see if such an association might be present in a subpopulation. However, the computational intensity of the method limited its application to relatively small samples of data, and the test itself only judges if association is present in some subpopulation; it does not clearly identify the subsample that came from this subpopulation, especially when the whole sample tests positive. The present paper adds a "top-K" feature (Sampath and Verducci (2013)) based on a multistage ranking model, that identifies a concise subsample that is likely to contain a high proportion of observations from the subpopulation in which the association is supported. Computational improvements incorporated into this top-K tau-path (TKTP) algorithm now allow the method to be extended to thousands of pairs of variables measured on sample sizes in the thousands. A description of the new algorithm along with measures of computational complexity and practical efficiency help to gauge its potential use in different settings. Simulation studies catalog its accuracy in various settings, and an example from finance illustrates its step-by-step use.

Explore related subjects

stat.AP

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Srinath Sampath, Adriano Caloiaro, Wayne Johnson, Joseph S. Verducci. 2015-09-02. The Top-K Tau-Path Screen for Monotone Association. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.00549

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Privacy-Preserving Causal Meta-Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes

Privacy and data-governance constraints often prevent pooling individual-level data across studies, limiting the use of conventional approaches for causal media- tion analysis in multicenter settings. We propose a federated causal meta-mediation framework for right-censored time-to-event outcomes that enables collaborative es- timation without sharing individual-level data. Our framework targets natural indirect effects in a prespecified population by combining information on mediator and outcome mechanisms across distributed data sources. A site-by-site identifi- cation strategy further allows heterogeneity across data sources to be character- ized, with a variance decomposition separating outcome-related, mediator-related, and interaction components. We develop federated one-step and targeted maxi- mum likelihood estimators that accommodate data-adaptive and machine-learning methods for nuisance-function estimation. The finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators is evaluated through numerical simulations. To illustrate the practical utility of the framework, we apply it on data from the French National Health Data System to evaluate the role of methotrexate coprescription in explain- ing the effect of TNFi versus IL-12/23 inhibitor therapy on treatment persistence among psoriatic patients.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

Geospatial Foundation Models Capture Health-Relevant Dimensions of Place Beyond Conventional Social Risk Indices

Area-based social risk indices summarize residents' socioeconomic conditions but incompletely capture physical features of place that may affect health. We evaluated whether numerical representations of physical place produced by four geospatial foundation model families from 2022 satellite data explained residual variance in tract-level associations between the Area Deprivation Index, Social Deprivation Index, and Social Vulnerability Index with health outcomes. We used LightGBM to predict variables from the American Community Survey and 40 chronic disease and health-behavior outcomes from CDC PLACES across 82,646 census tracts in the contiguous United States, evaluating performance across 10 held-out states. Among survey variables, models were moderately predictive of some variables including housing type (R-squared up to 0.54) but weak for disability, unemployment, and income disparity. For health outcomes, models explained up to 54% of variance left unexplained by social risk indices, with the largest gains for annual checkups, arthritis, and high blood pressure. Mean total variance explained by geospatial foundation models across the 40 health-related outcomes increased from 0.31 in the smallest tract-size decile to 0.39 in the largest. Geospatial foundation models capture health-relevant features of place not represented by conventional social risk indices and may usefully augment them in epidemiological analyses.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

A spatiotemporal negative binomial model with dynamic dispersion: An application to Tuberculosis infections

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a critical public health concern in Brazil, characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity and fluctuating temporal volatility. In this paper, we study monthly TB notifications across 61 microregions of Sao Paulo state from 2001 to 2024. To do this, we introduce a negative binomial spatial integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (INGARCH) model featuring jointly dynamic conditional means and time-varying dispersion. To capture inter-regional spillovers, we incorporate both discrete adjacency structures and a novel continuous distance-based formulation leveraging the Matern correlation function. Parameter estimation via conditional maximum likelihood employs a two-step profile-likelihood iterative scheme, demonstrating solid finite-sample performance in simulation studies. Applied to the Sao Paulo TB surveillance data, the framework substantially outperforms standard Poisson and fixed-dispersion spatiotemporal baselines in empirical fit and uncertainty quantification, maintaining nominal 95% predictive coverage across both dense metropolitan centers and rural microregions. Our results reveal marked spatial heterogeneity in baseline incidence, dynamic overdispersion driven by localized outbreaks, and short-range spatial interaction decay. By accurately modeling spatiotemporal volatility, the proposed methodology provides a robust statistical tool to support public health surveillance, policy-making, and resource allocation.

stat.AP↗