SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 1509.07859

Information Limits for Recovering a Hidden Community

Abstract

We study the problem of recovering a hidden community of cardinality $K$ from an $n \times n$ symmetric data matrix $A$, where for distinct indices $i,j$, $A_{ij} \sim P$ if $i, j$ both belong to the community and $A_{ij} \sim Q$ otherwise, for two known probability distributions $P$ and $Q$ depending on $n$. If $P={\rm Bern}(p)$ and $Q={\rm Bern}(q)$ with $p>q$, it reduces to the problem of finding a densely-connected $K$-subgraph planted in a large Erdös-Rényi graph; if $P=\mathcal{N}(μ,1)$ and $Q=\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ with $μ>0$, it corresponds to the problem of locating a $K \times K$ principal submatrix of elevated means in a large Gaussian random matrix. We focus on two types of asymptotic recovery guarantees as $n \to \infty$: (1) weak recovery: expected number of classification errors is $o(K)$; (2) exact recovery: probability of classifying all indices correctly converges to one. Under mild assumptions on $P$ and $Q$, and allowing the community size to scale sublinearly with $n$, we derive a set of sufficient conditions and a set of necessary conditions for recovery, which are asymptotically tight with sharp constants. The results hold in particular for the Gaussian case, and for the case of bounded log likelihood ratio, including the Bernoulli case whenever $\frac{p}{q}$ and $\frac{1-p}{1-q}$ are bounded away from zero and infinity. An important algorithmic implication is that, whenever exact recovery is information theoretically possible, any algorithm that provides weak recovery when the community size is concentrated near $K$ can be upgraded to achieve exact recovery in linear additional time by a simple voting procedure.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu. 2016-01-25. Information Limits for Recovering a Hidden Community. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.07859

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

A Hilbert-Valued Functional Decomposition Framework for Explaining Time-Dependent Outputs

Feature-based explanations quantify features' influence on model predictions, but are primarily designed for scalar outputs. In many applications, however, outputs are functional or multivariate, such as time-dependent trajectories in demand forecasting. Consequently, existing approaches typically explain each output location independently, ignoring dependencies across the output components. We address this limitation by developing a unified framework for feature-based explanations of time-dependent outputs. Specifically, we generalize functional decomposition to Hilbert-valued prediction functions and extend an existing feature-based explanation framework to this setting. Our framework introduces kernel-based output representations that enable time-dependency-aware explanations at multiple levels of temporal granularity, including time-specific, time-resolved, and time-aggregated, while providing a unified view in which existing methods arise as special cases. We validate our framework on synthetic and real-world data, including intraday financial market volatility prediction and energy demand forecasting.

stat.ML

Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

stat.ML

A distribution-free certification framework for trustworthy crash-severity prediction

Crash-severity models inform screening, dispatch and site prioritization, yet are deployed without a finite-sample statement of what one prediction means. Off-the-shelf guarantees fail here, because the features that make crash severity distinctive defeat them: the KABCO outcome is ordinal, the recorded label is a field assessment agreeing with medical severity about half the time, erring in a structured way, and deployment crosses jurisdictions and years calibration never saw. We develop a certification layer that wraps any severity model unmodified, with distribution-free guarantees using this structure: contiguous ordinal sets that read as "B or worse"; per-class validity for any pre-declared partition, with an oracle efficiency characterization; transfer of coverage to unobserved true severity through a declared reporting band, with a worst-case sharpness result; a one-sided certificate under deployment shift; and severity-weighted risk control. The guarantees compose with an attributable slack budget. The same analysis bounds what certification can achieve. A certified set's informativeness is governed by a functional of the true law that no base model can evade and that cannot be lower-bounded distribution-free; given a declared misreporting channel identified from record-linkage data, a nonvacuous lower bound on that floor becomes computable. On 5.2 million Texas records across seven base models spanning four decades, the layer attaches identical validity and certifies, on the vulnerable road users, a model-independent floor on set width that no base model beats, separating it from a remainder that stays bounded but distribution-free unidentifiable. The framework is released as an open-source package with theorem-level tests.

stat.ML