Prediction of weakly locally stationary processes by auto-regression

Abstract

In this contribution we introduce weakly locally stationary time series through the local approximation of the non-stationary covariance structure by a stationary one. This allows us to define autoregression coefficients in a non-stationary context, which, in the particular case of a locally stationary Time Varying Autoregressive (TVAR) process, coincide with the generating coefficients. We provide and study an estimator of the time varying autoregression coefficients in a general setting. The proposed estimator of these coefficients enjoys an optimal minimax convergence rate under limited smoothness conditions. In a second step, using a bias reduction technique, we derive a minimax-rate estimator for arbitrarily smooth time-evolving coefficients, which outperforms the previous one for large data sets. In turn, for TVAR processes, the predictor derived from the estimator exhibits an optimal minimax prediction rate.