Application of Bayesian graphs to SN Ia data analysis and compression

Abstract

Bayesian graphical models are an efficient tool for modelling complex data and derive self-consistent expressions of the posterior distribution of model parameters. We apply Bayesian graphs to perform statistical analyses of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) luminosity distance measurements from the joint light-curve analysis (JLA) data set. In contrast to the $χ^2$ approach used in previous studies, the Bayesian inference allows us to fully account for the standard-candle parameter dependence of the data covariance matrix. Comparing with $χ^2$ analysis results, we find a systematic offset of the marginal model parameter bounds. We demonstrate that the bias is statistically significant in the case of the SN Ia standardization parameters with a maximal 6 $σ$ shift of the SN light-curve colour correction. In addition, we find that the evidence for a host galaxy correction is now only 2.4 $σ$. Systematic offsets on the cosmological parameters remain small, but may increase by combining constraints from complementary cosmological probes. The bias of the $χ^2$ analysis is due to neglecting the parameter-dependent log-determinant of the data covariance, which gives more statistical weight to larger values of the standardization parameters. We find a similar effect on compressed distance modulus data. To this end, we implement a fully consistent compression method of the JLA data set that uses a Gaussian approximation of the posterior distribution for fast generation of compressed data. Overall, the results of our analysis emphasize the need for a fully consistent Bayesian statistical approach in the analysis of future large SN Ia data sets.