Universal asymptotic clone size distribution for general population growth

Michael D. Nicholson; Tibor Antal

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arXiv · 1604.04936

Universal asymptotic clone size distribution for general population growth

Michael D. Nicholson·Tibor Antal

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Abstract

Deterministically growing (wild-type) populations which seed stochastically developing mutant clones have found an expanding number of applications from microbial populations to cancer. The special case of exponential wild-type population growth, usually termed the Luria-Delbr\"uck or Lea-Coulson model, is often assumed but seldom realistic. In this article we generalise this model to different types of wild-type population growth, with mutants evolving as a birth-death branching process. Our focus is on the size distribution of clones - that is the number of progeny of a founder mutant - which can be mapped to the total number of mutants. Exact expressions are derived for exponential, power-law and logistic population growth. Additionally for a large class of population growth we prove that the long time limit of the clone size distribution has a general two-parameter form, whose tail decays as a power-law. Considering metastases in cancer as the mutant clones, upon analysing a data-set of their size distribution, we indeed find that a power-law tail is more likely than an exponential one.

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Michael D. Nicholson, Tibor Antal. 2016-04-17. Universal asymptotic clone size distribution for general population growth. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.04936

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