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arXiv · 1604.07637

Atypical viral dynamics from transport through popular places

Pedro D. Manrique·Chen Xu·Pak Ming Hui·Neil F. Johnson
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Abstract

The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading -- from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading though online spaces such as chatrooms and social media. However there is a lack of understanding of the types of viral dynamics that can result. Here we present a minimal dynamical model which focuses on the time-dependent interplay between the {\em mobility through} and the {\em occupancy of} such spaces. Our generic model permits analytic analysis while producing a rich diversity of infection profiles in terms of their shapes, durations, and intensities. The general features of these theoretical profiles compare well to real-world data of recent social contagion phenomena.

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Pedro D. Manrique, Chen Xu, Pak Ming Hui, Neil F. Johnson. 2016-08-06. Atypical viral dynamics from transport through popular places. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.94.022304

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