SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 1609.04522

Tensor Graphical Model: Non-convex Optimization and Statistical Inference

Abstract

We consider the estimation and inference of graphical models that characterize the dependency structure of high-dimensional tensor-valued data. To facilitate the estimation of the precision matrix corresponding to each way of the tensor, we assume the data follow a tensor normal distribution whose covariance has a Kronecker product structure. A critical challenge in the estimation and inference of this model is the fact that its penalized maximum likelihood estimation involves minimizing a non-convex objective function. To address it, this paper makes two contributions: (i) In spite of the non-convexity of this estimation problem, we prove that an alternating minimization algorithm, which iteratively estimates each sparse precision matrix while fixing the others, attains an estimator with an optimal statistical rate of convergence. (ii) We propose a de-biased statistical inference procedure for testing hypotheses on the true support of the sparse precision matrices, and employ it for testing a growing number of hypothesis with false discovery rate (FDR) control. The asymptotic normality of our test statistic and the consistency of FDR control procedure are established. Our theoretical results are backed up by thorough numerical studies and our real applications on neuroimaging studies of Autism spectrum disorder and users' advertising click analysis bring new scientific findings and business insights. The proposed methods are encoded into a publicly available R package Tlasso.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Xiang Lyu, Will Wei Sun, Zhaoran Wang, Han Liu, Jian Yang, Guang Cheng. 2016-09-15. Tensor Graphical Model: Non-convex Optimization and Statistical Inference. https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.04522

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

A Hilbert-Valued Functional Decomposition Framework for Explaining Time-Dependent Outputs

Feature-based explanations quantify features' influence on model predictions, but are primarily designed for scalar outputs. In many applications, however, outputs are functional or multivariate, such as time-dependent trajectories in demand forecasting. Consequently, existing approaches typically explain each output location independently, ignoring dependencies across the output components. We address this limitation by developing a unified framework for feature-based explanations of time-dependent outputs. Specifically, we generalize functional decomposition to Hilbert-valued prediction functions and extend an existing feature-based explanation framework to this setting. Our framework introduces kernel-based output representations that enable time-dependency-aware explanations at multiple levels of temporal granularity, including time-specific, time-resolved, and time-aggregated, while providing a unified view in which existing methods arise as special cases. We validate our framework on synthetic and real-world data, including intraday financial market volatility prediction and energy demand forecasting.

stat.ML

Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

stat.ML

A distribution-free certification framework for trustworthy crash-severity prediction

Crash-severity models inform screening, dispatch and site prioritization, yet are deployed without a finite-sample statement of what one prediction means. Off-the-shelf guarantees fail here, because the features that make crash severity distinctive defeat them: the KABCO outcome is ordinal, the recorded label is a field assessment agreeing with medical severity about half the time, erring in a structured way, and deployment crosses jurisdictions and years calibration never saw. We develop a certification layer that wraps any severity model unmodified, with distribution-free guarantees using this structure: contiguous ordinal sets that read as "B or worse"; per-class validity for any pre-declared partition, with an oracle efficiency characterization; transfer of coverage to unobserved true severity through a declared reporting band, with a worst-case sharpness result; a one-sided certificate under deployment shift; and severity-weighted risk control. The guarantees compose with an attributable slack budget. The same analysis bounds what certification can achieve. A certified set's informativeness is governed by a functional of the true law that no base model can evade and that cannot be lower-bounded distribution-free; given a declared misreporting channel identified from record-linkage data, a nonvacuous lower bound on that floor becomes computable. On 5.2 million Texas records across seven base models spanning four decades, the layer attaches identical validity and certifies, on the vulnerable road users, a model-independent floor on set width that no base model beats, separating it from a remainder that stays bounded but distribution-free unidentifiable. The framework is released as an open-source package with theorem-level tests.

stat.ML