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arXiv · 1610.08910

Perfect Memory Context Trees in time series modeling

Tong Zhang
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Abstract

The Stochastic Context Tree (SCOT) is a useful tool for studying infinite random sequences generated by an m-Markov Chain (m-MC). It captures the phenomenon that the probability distribution of the next state sometimes depends on less than m of the preceding states. This allows compressing the information needed to describe an m-MC. The SCOT construction has been earlier used under various names: VLMC, VOMC, PST, CTW. In this paper we study the possibility of reducing the m-MC to a 1-MC on the leaves of the SCOT. Such context trees are called perfect-memory. We give various combinatorial characterizations of perfect-memory context trees and an efficient algorithm to find the minimal perfect-memory extension of a SCOT.

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Tong Zhang. 2016-10-17. Perfect Memory Context Trees in time series modeling. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.08910

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