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arXiv · 1610.09041

Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling

Daisuke Murakami·Yoshiki Yamagata
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Abstract

This study downscales the population and gross domestic product (GDP) scenarios given under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into 0.5-degree grids. Our downscale approach has the following features: (i) it explicitly considers spatial and socioeconomic interactions among cities; (ii) it utilizes auxiliary variables, including, road network and land cover; (iii) it endogenously estimates influence from each factor by a model ensemble approach; (iv) it allows us controlling urban shrinkage/dispersion depending on SSPs. It is confirmed that our downscaling results are consistent with scenario assumptions (e.g., concentration in SSP1 and dispersion in SSP3). Besides, while existing grid-level scenario tends to have overly-smoothed population distributions in non-urban areas, ours does not suffer from the problem, and captures difference in urban and non-urban areas in a more reasonable manner.

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Daisuke Murakami, Yoshiki Yamagata. 2016-10-28. Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.09041

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