Asymptotic for critical value of the large-dimensional SIR epidemic on clusters

Abstract

In this paper we are concerned with the SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed) epidemic on open clusters of bond percolation on the squared lattice. For the SIR model, a susceptible vertex is infected at rate proportional to the number of infective neighbors while an infective vertex becomes removed at a constant rate. A removed vertex will never be infected again. We assume that there is only one infective vertex at $t=0$ and define the critical value of the model as the maximum of the infection rates with which infective vertices die out with probability one, then we show that the critical value is $\big(1+o(1)\big)/(2dp)$ as $d\rightarrow+\infty$, where $d$ is the dimension of the lattice and $p$ is the probability that a given edge is open. Our result is a counterpart of the main theorem in \cite{Hol1981} for the contact process.