On the Kesten-Stigum theorem in $L^2$ beyond $\lambda$-positivity

Abstract

We study supercritical branching processes in which all particles evolve according to some general Markovian motion (which may possess absorbing states) and branch independently at a fixed constant rate. Under fairly natural assumptions on the asymptotic distribution of the underlying motion, we first show using only probablistic tools that there is convergence in $L^2$ of the empirical measure (normalized by the mean number of particles) if and only if an associated additive martingale is bounded in $L^2$. This is a significant improvement over previous results, which were mainly restricted to $\lambda$-positive motions. We then investigate under which conditions this limit is strictly positive on the event of non-extinction and show that this occurs whenever, on the latter event, particles do not accumulate on the boundary of the state space. In particular, this property also yields the convergence of the real empirical measure (normalized by the number of particles). Moreover, building on previous results we prove that if the motion is $\lambda$-positive then these limits hold also almost surely whenever the Doob's $h$-transform of this motion admits a suitable Lyapunov functional. Finally, we illustrate our results for a variety of different motions: ergodic motions without absorption, $\lambda$-positive systems either transient or with absorption, and also certain non $\lambda$-positive systems such as the Brownian motion with negative drift killed at $0$. A strong law of large numbers for the empirical measure in this last example was announced by Kesten in the late seventies, although a proof of it has remained undisclosed so far. Our results allow us to give a partial proof to Kesten's claim.