An eddifying Stommel model: Fast eddy effects in a two-box ocean

Abstract

A system of stochastic differential equations is formulated describing the heat and salt content of a two-box ocean. Variability in the heat and salt content and in the thermohaline circulation between the boxes is driven by fast Gaussian atmospheric forcing and by ocean-intrinsic, eddy-driven variability. The eddy forcing of the slow dynamics takes the form of a colored, non-Gaussian noise. The qualitative effects of this non-Gaussianity are investigated by comparing to two approximate models: one that includes only the mean eddy effects (the `averaged model'), and one that includes an additional Gaussian white-noise approximation of the eddy effects (the `Gaussian model'). Both of these approximate models are derived using the methods of fast averaging and homogenization. In the parameter regime where the dynamics has a single stable equilibrium the averaged model has too little variability. The Gaussian model has accurate second-order statistics, but incorrect skew and rare-event probabilities. In the parameter regime where the dynamics has two stable equilibria the eddy noise is much smaller than the atmospheric noise. The averaged, Gaussian, and non-Gaussian models all have similar stationary distributions, but the jump rates between equilibria are too small for the averaged and Gaussian models.