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arXiv · 1707.08681

Gerrymandering and the net number of US House seats won due to vote-distribution asymmetries

Jeffrey S. Buzas·Gregory S. Warrington
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Abstract

Using the recently introduced declination function, we estimate the net number of seats won in the US House of Representatives due to asymmetries in vote distributions. Such asymmetries can arise from combinations of partisan gerrymandering and inherent geographic advantage. Our estimates show significant biases in favor of the Democrats prior to the mid 1990s and significant biases in favor of Republicans since then. We find net differences of 28, 20 and 25 seats in favor of the Republicans in the years 2012, 2014 and 2016, respectively. The validity of our results is supported by the technique of simulated packing and cracking. We also use this technique to show that the presidential-vote logistic regression model is insensitive to the packing and cracking by which partisan gerrymanders are achieved.

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Jeffrey S. Buzas, Gregory S. Warrington. 2017-07-27. Gerrymandering and the net number of US House seats won due to vote-distribution asymmetries. https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.08681

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