Estimating the Size of Aedes aegypti Populations from Dengue Incidence Data: Implications for the Risk of Yellow Fever, Zika Virus and Chikungunya Outbreaks

Eduardo Massad; Marcos Amaku; Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho; Claudio José Struchiner; Luis Fernandez Lopez; Annelies Wilder-Smith; Marcelo Nascimento Burattini

arXiv · 1709.01852

Estimating the Size of Aedes aegypti Populations from Dengue Incidence Data: Implications for the Risk of Yellow Fever, Zika Virus and Chikungunya Outbreaks

Eduardo Massad·Marcos Amaku·Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho·Claudio José Struchiner·Luis Fernandez Lopez·Annelies Wilder-Smith·Marcelo Nascimento Burattini

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Abstract

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The model is based on the fitting of a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allows the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The model is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same methods apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.

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Eduardo Massad, Marcos Amaku, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho, Claudio José Struchiner, Luis Fernandez Lopez, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Marcelo Nascimento Burattini. 2017-09-06. Estimating the Size of Aedes aegypti Populations from Dengue Incidence Data: Implications for the Risk of Yellow Fever, Zika Virus and Chikungunya Outbreaks. https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01852

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