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arXiv · 1712.07713

Optimal control of a probabilistic dynamic for epidemic spreading in arbitrary complex networks

Fabrizio Angaroni
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Abstract

This paper presents a discrete time probabilistic dynamic for simulating a contact-based epidemic spreading based on discrete time Markov chain process, in particular the attention is addressed to the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and the phase diagram of such model will be presented. Then, this report presents the set of equations that represent the optimal control strategies, by the means of Pontryagin's maximum principle, in two different cases a vaccination policy and a combined vaccination-hospitalization policy and show a numerical simulation, with the standard forward-backward sweep procedure, for these equations.

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Fabrizio Angaroni. 2017-12-20. Optimal control of a probabilistic dynamic for epidemic spreading in arbitrary complex networks. https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.07713

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