Theoretical Impediments to Machine Learning With Seven Sparks from the Causal Revolution

Judea Pearl

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arXiv · 1801.04016

Theoretical Impediments to Machine Learning With Seven Sparks from the Causal Revolution

Judea Pearl

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Abstract

Current machine learning systems operate, almost exclusively, in a statistical, or model-free mode, which entails severe theoretical limits on their power and performance. Such systems cannot reason about interventions and retrospection and, therefore, cannot serve as the basis for strong AI. To achieve human level intelligence, learning machines need the guidance of a model of reality, similar to the ones used in causal inference tasks. To demonstrate the essential role of such models, I will present a summary of seven tasks which are beyond reach of current machine learning systems and which have been accomplished using the tools of causal modeling.

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Judea Pearl. 2018-01-11. Theoretical Impediments to Machine Learning With Seven Sparks from the Causal Revolution. https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.04016

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