Lower tail of the KPZ equation

Abstract

We provide the first tight bounds on the lower tail probability of the one point distribution of the KPZ equation with narrow wedge initial data. Our bounds hold for all sufficiently large times $T$ and demonstrates a crossover between super-exponential decay with exponent $5/2$ (and leading pre-factor $\frac{4}{15\pi} T^{1/3}$) for tail depth greater than $T^{2/3}$, and exponent $3$ (with leading pre-factor $\frac{1}{12}$) for tail depth less than $T^{2/3}$.