Predicting influenza H3N2 vaccine efficacy from evolution of the dominant epitope

Melia E. Bonomo; Michael W. Deem

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arXiv · 1804.04751

Predicting influenza H3N2 vaccine efficacy from evolution of the dominant epitope

Melia E. Bonomo·Michael W. Deem

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Abstract

We predict vaccine efficacy with a measure of antigenic distance between influenza A(H3N2) and candidate vaccine viruses based on amino acid substitutions in the dominant epitopes. In 2016-2017, our model predicts 19% efficacy compared to 20% observed. This tool assists candidate vaccine selection by predicting human protection against circulating strains.

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Melia E. Bonomo, Michael W. Deem. 2018-04-13. Predicting influenza H3N2 vaccine efficacy from evolution of the dominant epitope. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04751

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