FIFA Does it Right: 2026 FIFA World Cup Does not Increase the Number of Non-Competitive Matches

Traian Marius Truta

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1808.05858

FIFA Does it Right: 2026 FIFA World Cup Does not Increase the Number of Non-Competitive Matches

Traian Marius Truta

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

FIFA World Cup is one of the most watched sporting event in the world and its popularity continue to increase. While currently 32 teams participate in this event, starting with 2026 the number of participants will increase to 48. As a result, FIFA proposed a major format change, the groups of 4 teams will be replaced by groups of 3 teams, with the first two teams to qualify to the second round. In this paper, we discuss the possibility of matches with limited importance (called non-competitive) for final group standing for both 4-team and 3-team groups and we introduce our definitions of collusion and dead rubber games. Next, we discuss scenarios in both 4-team and 3-team group formats that lead to such matches. Finally, we make an analysis of all group stage matches from last six World Cup editions (1998 to 2018), and we predict the most likely number of collusions and dead rubber games for the new format of the World Cup. During our analysis we consider a variation of the proposed 3-group format in which the order of matches for each group is predetermined. Our analysis show that this variation has the potential of reducing significantly the number of both collusion and dead rubber matches thus becoming an interesting option to be considered for adoption by FIFA. In conclusion, we recommend FIFA to implement a predefined order of group matches prior to the drawing. The seeded team should play the first match with the team that is second best (according to the drawing time FIFA Coca-Cola rankings), as well as the second match from the group.

Explore related subjects

physics.soc-ph

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Traian Marius Truta. 2018-07-27. FIFA Does it Right: 2026 FIFA World Cup Does not Increase the Number of Non-Competitive Matches. https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.05858

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Energy pathway variety and the progress of the energy transition in European countries

The integration of new energy forms into existing energy infrastructure has emerged as a critical challenge in the context of the pursuit of a sustainable energy transition. One of the main challenges is understanding how this integration takes place not only from the introduction, but also as energy follows existing paths or creates new ones through which it is transformed and used by different activities. Here we introduce techniques from network science to analyse this process for the case of 29 European countries between 1992 and 2021. We study how new energy forms increase or decrease the variety (heterogeneity) of paths through the system of each country by establishing new ones and replacing or phasing out existing ones. We find that the transition to systems based on renewable energy is characterised by an initial increase in the variety of paths while the heterogeneity of paths decreases at the end of the transition, when the proportion of non-renewables in the system tends to zero. We then demonstrate that greater heterogeneity (complexity) is associated with larger annual fluctuations in the proportion of non-renewable sources in the system, establishing a direct relationship between the progress of the transition and the complexity of the energy system in which it occurs. This contributes to the understanding of general properties of the dynamics of the energy transition and effects that accelerate or deter it.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Fundamental limits to identifying node and tie memory in temporal networks: marginal artefacts and spreading dynamics

Temporal-network models attribute memory in contact data to either node self-excitation (branching ratio n_node) or tie reinforcement (kappa), carrying major consequences for epidemic spreading. We prove that when event initiators are observed, the two mechanisms are orthogonal: the Fisher information is block-diagonal and neither trades off against the other. In undirected proximity data, where initiators are unobserved, marginalising over them couples the mechanisms into a structural confound that survives posterior smoothing. On empirical proximity, messaging, and email records, however, a cruder failure dominates: fitted node memory is pinned to the inter-event marginal law and remains virtually invariant across latent label posterior samples (coefficient of variation below 1%). An inter-event-order shuffle test and burstiness-memory diagnostics reveal that exponential-Hawkes node memory is recovered from none, while tie reinforcement remains identifiable throughout. This near-unidentifiability is intrinsic, not an artefact of the exponential kernel: refitting flexible scale-free (sum-of-exponentials) kernels on synthetic power-law self-exciting processes fails to distinguish genuine node memory from memoryless renewal controls, with identical collapses recurring on algorithmic networks (edit bots, cloud microservices) and cortical spiking. Downstream epidemic consequences are quantitative: simulations fitted to empirical contact records under-predict outbreak sizes by up to a factor of 2.5 and shift the epidemic threshold. We conclude that observational temporal networks face a two-fold identifiability boundary: contact directionality is essential to decouple tie reinforcement, whereas heavy-tailed node self-excitation is intrinsically unidentifiable from contact timings alone.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Assessing extreme flood impacts on urban rail transit: A passenger-oriented, resilience-informed framework

Urban rail transit systems (URTSs) are increasingly exposed to extreme floods following heavy precipitation, yet passenger travel impacts are often assessed through delay-based indicators that overlook infeasible journeys under large-scale disruptions. This study develops a passenger-oriented, resilience-informed framework for assessing flood impacts on URTS journeys from disruption onset to recovery completion. The framework presents a novel six-category classification of journey impacts, explicitly considering rerouting, alternative station use, and a delay threshold. It is demonstrated through hourly dynamic simulations of 15 London URTS lines under 30-year, 100-year, and 1,000-year flood risk scenarios. Results indicate that severe flood disruptions lead to substantial unsatisfied demand, driven primarily by unavailable routes rather than unacceptable delays. Compared with finer behaviour adjustments, rerouting dominates travel impacts. These findings highlight the significance of moving beyond delay-based assessment and provide valuable evidence on essential behavioural mechanisms for strategic-level stress testing intended to inform URTS flood resilience intervention planning.

physics.soc-ph↗