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arXiv · 1811.09312

Estimation of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process Using Ultra-High-Frequency Data with Application to Intraday Pairs Trading Strategy

Vladimír Holý·Petra Tomanová
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Abstract

When stock prices are observed at high frequencies, more information can be utilized in estimation of parameters of the price process. However, high-frequency data are contaminated by the market microstructure noise which causes significant bias in parameter estimation when not taken into account. We propose an estimator of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process based on the maximum likelihood which is robust to the noise and utilizes irregularly spaced data. We also show that the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process contaminated by the independent Gaussian white noise and observed at discrete equidistant times follows an ARMA(1,1) process. To illustrate benefits of the proposed noise-robust approach, we introduce a novel intraday pairs trading strategy based on the mean-variance optimization. In an empirical study of 7 Big Oil companies, we show that the use of the proposed estimator of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process leads to an increase in profitability of the pairs trading strategy.

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BibTeXRIS

Vladimír Holý, Petra Tomanová. 2018-11-22. Estimation of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process Using Ultra-High-Frequency Data with Application to Intraday Pairs Trading Strategy. https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.09312

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